The reliability of an ‘off-the-shelf’ conceptual\ud rainfall runoff model for use in climate impact\ud assessment: uncertainty quantification using\ud Latin hypercube sampling

摘要

Much uncertainty is derived from the application of conceptual rainfall runoff models.\udIn this paper, HYSIM, an ‘off-the-shelf’ conceptual rainfall runoff model, is applied\udto a suite of catchments throughout Ireland in preparation for use in climate impact\udassessment. Parameter uncertainty is assessed using the GLUE methodology. Given the\udlack of source code available for the model, parameter sampling is carried out using\udLatin hypercube sampling. Uncertainty bounds are constructed for model output. These\udbounds will be used to quantify uncertainty in future simulations as they include error\udderived from data measurement, model structure and parameterization.